An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findings and Actions Taken

In the wake of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, the nation’s leadership turned its attention to another low‑probability, high‑impact threat: a massive earthquake striking California. President Carter convened an ad‑hoc National Security Council committee that brought together FEMA, the USGS, the Department of Defense, state officials, local governments, and private consultants to examine what such a disaster might look like and how prepared the country really was. Their summer‑long study produced a detailed set of working papers that form the backbone of this report.

The document walks listeners through realistic seismic scenarios, estimates of potential loss for major urban centers, and a frank appraisal of federal, state, and local response capabilities. It also outlines the legislative framework born from the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act and the coordinated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, highlighting gaps that remain in communication, infrastructure, and financial resilience. By exposing where preparation falls short, the report offers a clear roadmap for policymakers, engineers, and anyone interested in understanding the stakes of California’s seismic future.