I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just