article
by Patrick McKenzie
By March 22nd, I strongly suspected there was a widespread coronavirus epidemic in Japan. This was not widely believed at the time. I, working with others, conducted an independent research project. By March 25th we had sufficient certainty to act. We projected that the default course of the epidemic would lead to a public health crisis.
The public consensus up to mid-March
A brief timeline of the last ~30 days
The white paper
Japan will face rapid acceleration of covid-19 in April, leading to a public health crisis
Was the white paper correct?
Were these results novel and useful?
Why did you publish the hash and not the memo?
Dropping a hash can be like lighting a signal fire
Someone read between the lines
A follow-up comparing an early, pre-registered view of the coronavirus in Japan with what happened next.
We are not affiliated with Patrick McKenzie. This unofficial audio edition is available to listen to and share for free. See the original selection on Kalzumeus.
Duration
~1 hours (68K characters)
Release date
Apr 21, 2020